(Updated Below)
Mirth and Matter will be tracking the election results (and the media's coverage of it) this evening. Click on the comments to join in the discussion (newest posts towards the bottom)
As of 7:58am EST, the majors have called the following:
AR: Clinton, Huckabee
AL: Obama, Huckabee
OK: Clinton, McCain
TN: Clinton, Huckabee
GA: Obama, Huckabee
NY: Clinton, McCain
IL: Obama, McCain
CT: Obama, McCain
DE: Obama, McCain
NJ: Clinton, McCain
MA: Clinton, Romney
WV: Huckabee
ND: Obama, Romney
UT: Obama, Romney
KS: Obama
MN: Obama, Romney
AZ: Clinton, McCain
MO: Obama, McCain
CO: Obama, Romney
ID: Obama
MT: Romney
CA: Clinton, McCain
AK: Obama, Romney
Approx. delegates:
Clinton - 845
Obama - 765
McCain - 613
Romney - 269
Huckabee - 190
Conclusions:
1) The notion that a black man cannot win the white vote has officially been put to rest. Obama cleaned up in states with vast majorities of white voters, like Idaho (with over 80% of the vote), Alaska, North Dakota, Colorado, Kansas and a host of others. The issue is turning out to be between black and brown.
2) This election is exposing rifts in the American social fabric along race, gender, and religious lines. In the last month, we've seen Black vs. White vs. Latino vs. Man vs. Woman vs. Christian vs. Mormon, etc. White women are voting overwhelming for one of their own; Latino and Evangelical voters are staying clear of the candidates that aren't like them. Identity is playing a huge role in this election and will continue to shape the road to the conventions this summer.
3) It is impossible to win a GOP nomination without the support of the south. Look at the election map: McCain won a lot of Democratic states like California, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, and New York. In November, these places are probably going to turn blue, so a GOP majority for McCain won't mean much. Huckabee, on the other hand, is proving that he can carry the historical and ideological base of the Republican party, the south. He may not have a shot at the nomination, but he's exposed a very real problem with a McCain candidacy.
4) The limits of Mitt Romney's money advantage is being exposed. Both McCain and Huckabee have managed to do more with a lot less than Romney has. Salon.com notes that Romney has spent $1.16 million per delegate. At that rate, he would have to spend $1.33 billion to win the nomination.
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38 comments:
It is amazing to me that the networks are making projections based on around 1% of the vote. Is their exit polling process so exact that they can risk doing this? It seems that a false call is bad news when you have the rival networks breathing down your neck for viewership.
I stand by my prior assertion. Mike Huckabee stands to take a lot of the evangelical south votes and Romney is securing his home state and Utah. Divided they will allow McCain to widen the gap. It is likely after tonight the Republican candidate is locked.
Zach, I'm not sure it matters. Example, espn.com. Every week they have some overpaid sports writer make his predictions. Right or wrong, it still stirs emotional reaction to people who vest themselves in the outcome of sporting events. In that sense I think people just want to feel hope.
Hmm, not sure about that Ruxton. I agree that you have a plurality in the Republican primary, but McCain is up in a lot of states based on CNN's latest results. I still predict McCain will wrap it up. But we shall see, I don't want to get ahead of myself.
Obama/Clinton race is tight, as predicted.
A further support to our thematic insinuation that the political race is far too akin to sporting events in this country. This is an article excerpt from http://news.bbc.co.uk/
Mrs Clinton's campaign brushed off the early defeat, saying: "Unlike the Obama campaign, the Clinton campaign never dedicated significant resources to Georgia."
I can't imagine sentiments like that would boost anyone's image of Hillary, unless they were so enamored with the GO TEAM! mentality.
Aside from my foolhardy predictions, I have to say that the media narratives seem to be focusing on the surge of Obama and McCain.
A lot of the media is expecting them to take California, which is viewed, and I quote, as "the big enchilada."
Check out the MSNBC coverage though - they've been framing the early exit polls as a solid defeat to McCain and the sudden rise of Huckabee. If he carries the south, who knows? (I can bet Romney is fuming about that right now)
It appears that CNN has called Massachusetts for Romney without the Boston county results. Not that I expect an upset, but there is only a 10% difference between him and McCain, and Boston hasn't reported! Seems like they are making some assumptions.
Yeah, Reuters is posting Obama ahead in Alabama with only 7% reporting. I think quality journalism is out the window, they're just taking advantage of American interest in the event.
Update from life inside breaking news central: the ODE newsroom.
Ok, so I fell asleep on the newsroom couch for a while, lulled by the stentorian tones of Anderson Cooper and vaguely hypnotized by the little light that traces the CNN logo over and over and over ...
But now I am alert, with my Tuesday night bag of Cheetos and an Odwalla OJ at my side. Bring on those time zones!
I predict Edwards wins Minnesota with 0% of the precincts reporting!
:)
Our neighbors across the pond seem to have a fancy for Obama, judging by bbc.co.uk news for the past few weeks.
MSNBC.com just broke that Hillary is projected for Massachusetts.
One thing I've notice about this election cycle is that that networks almost hide behind their fancy new-fangled technologies content wise. A lot of it is just a huge distraction, like "hey, we not be right, but look at our toys!" And I love how the CNN program glitches fairly often.
An aside: Moby posts a journal through is website that I get on my livejournal account. One idea he mused over awhile back, around the midterm elections, was the concept of crossing party lines to askew the votes of the opposition.
Consider Huckabee breathes new life into his campaign tonight and Romney takes a hit, the Republican contest may continue for some time. Would you consider registering for the opposing party to somehow affect their outcome?
Adding to Ruxton's recent post with the bbc article link, it is amazing how much the international community is embracing Obama. As much as race shouldn't matter, people out there are encouraged by the prospect of a black American president with a foreign-sounding name. Just another indication that a President Obama would do well to heal some of the scars of the pompous Bush years.
MSNBC is talking about Huckabee again - he apparently has more delegates already than Romney. This is interesting...
Can I just point out again that according to CNN, Boston and Cambridge precincts have not reported. Considering the amount of young people here, you have to wonder about calling it early for Clinton.
As a side note, my town went solidly for Clinton.
"Hey, what are we gonna do about writing percentages on the states that are real tiny?"
-Our graphic design guy, who obviously grew up in the West
Again, in the line of disrespecting voters....
"Right now we do feel very good. We feel our greatest strengths tonight are some of those states out west."
THOSE states? Does nothing to ease East vs. West tensions, Mitt. Too bad you won't last to Oregon.
Graphically, I think a primary like this makes sense to represent the weight of states proportionally to the size of the state in the graphics. All those "tiny states" actually carry a lot more weight than Idaho and Montana. Therefore, the graphics guy should distort the map of the country to make Delaware pretty big and Wyoming pretty small.
All those teeny-tiny states? Give the votes to the Atlantic.
"I'm the Atlantic Ocean and I approve this message."
Uh oh, tornadoes are breaking out in Arkansas and Tennessee! I wonder what this is going to do to the election results (see my last post). Maybe the disaster footage will encourage people to vote for war-mongerer McCain. Or maybe people will interpret is as the wrath of God and give their votes to Huckabee instead..
I think the large contest tonight shows the limits of Romney's money. McCain and Huckabee have shown that they can do a lot more with a lot less.
Reuters is projecting Romney to take California, but that's changed over the last hour, so I'll take it with a grain of salt.
I think that even if Obama wins the popular vote overall, Billary will end up coming up with the most total delegates through shady back-room deals.
Are the electronic ballots printing out paper ballots finally or we just trusting government officials to tell us the truth once again?
If they aren't printing out paper receipts this whole thing is suspect if you ask me. Not that I'm paranoid or anything . . .
Jared, luckily California overhauled their system after the Secretary of State investigated their touch-screen voting machines and didn't like what she saw.
Boston reported in, with Clinton up by only a couple hundred votes. Percentage-wise, it is a 49% to 49% tie.
Voting machines are scary indeed. I learned that the machines used in Florida print a receipt of results on a spool but they jam 15% of the time. In addition, they don't show which voter voted for whom. On top of all of that they could be hacked by an 11th grader and their maker is a well-known GOP supporter. I'm with you on the paranoia Jared...
MSNBC just called Utah for Obama based on 24 individual votes! Are the networks getting more and more desperate to call the results before the other guys? Like Chris said, I call Minnesota for Edwards with 0 votes in.
This sort of prognosticating is 80% beating the other networks to the punch and 20% actual data. I wonder if these projections are going to hold true.
Interesting comments by Huckabee in his speech:
"They've been saying that this is a two person race. And, you know what, it is - and we're in it."
Let's see about the Romney showing in California. Huckabee could be right - or more accurately, it's a two man race between conservative candidate(s) - Huck and Mitt - and McCain, the "moderate."
"Hmmm. Utah projected for Mitt Romney. In other news, the sun rises and sets."
-Sports reporter, between mouthfuls of meatball sub (flying crumbs omitted for your protection)
I've currently got three different news agencies up on my lappy: BBC (which was insightful for their initial perspective but is becoming less and less meaningful), Reuters, and MSNBC. Everyone's showing something different. Part of me just wants to go to bed until Thursday and see what happens when California's mail-ins get counted.
At one point, a guy with a beard on CNN suggested that while I watch their channel, I should have my laptop open in front of me to their website. Because who cares about fair and balanced media coverage when there's big fat shiny sensory overload to be had?
It is looking more and more like Huckabee is going to have to be taken seriously as a force in this race. He's taken Georgia and it's looking like he may grab Missouri as well (and of course he picked up all the smaller southern states). Just this morning he was being written off. McCain, the front runner, is winning is largely democratic states. So far this Super Tuesday is proving that without the support of the south, it's going to be difficult to get any Republican elected. NY, NJ, CT and states like that are not going to crown a GOP president.
Super Tuesday is making me happier and happier, thinking these big Hollywood superstars might have to come to MY little podunk, backwoods, redneck state.
True, true. This thing is going to be decided by the small guys (+ Texas). Of course, by the time Oregonians go the polls in May, the field may have gotten tighter.
Obama is predicted to win the majority of the contests in this next week, greatly narrowing the gap. If that's the case I can see him putting up an impressive fight through to the end. Washington and Oregon will likely go to him, we'll have to see about some of the middle states, but he's doing very well so far.
I think your point about the social rifts is important. A lot of candidates are being pigeon-holed into a particular demographic representation. It reminded me of the debate over Obama's stance on Pakistan. Barack said he would use a military coalition, in cooperation with the Pakistani government, to infiltrate the country and take out the Al Qaeda threat, assuming diplomacy fails. Hillary looked at him like he was crazy, but I wonder if he wasn't trying to win Red voters by proving he is a liberal candidate that can play power politics.
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