I know what you are thinking - jeez, Chris, could you pick a more boring topic to be interested in. Yes, I could, so don't tempt me. But seriously, major changes are afoot up in the north, and we are now entering the summer melt season. Last summer I read the weekly updates from the National Snow and Ice Data Center during the melt period, and the data is fascinating. Records kept being broken by the week, and a note of awe crept into the normally emotionless tone of the scientists' reports.
How bad was last year's melt? Here is a summary from the National Snow and Ice Data Center October 1, 2007 press release: (click on the links for the pictures)
"Arctic sea ice during the 2007 melt season plummeted to the lowest levels since satellite measurements began in 1979. The average sea ice extent for the month of September was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles), the lowest September on record, shattering the previous record for the month, set in 2005, by 23 percent (see Figure 1). At the end of the melt season, September 2007 sea ice was 39 percent below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000 (see Figure 2). If ship and aircraft records from before the satellite era are taken into account, sea ice may have fallen by as much as 50 percent from the 1950s. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 is now approximately 10 percent per decade, or 72,000 square kilometers (28,000 square miles) per year (see Figure 3)."How big is the difference between the 2005 record low ice extent and 2007?
(NSIDC Oct. 1, 2007 Press Release)
"The minimum for 2007 shatters the previous five-day minimum set on September 20–21, 2005, by 1.19 million square kilometers (460,000 square miles), roughly the size of Texas and California combined, or nearly five United Kingdoms."
(NSIDC, September 20th, 2007)
This year looks to break last year's melt records. One major factor that could play out this year is that because of last year's record melt, the new ice that formed over the winter is especially thin. "NIC scientist Todd Arbetter suggests that much of the first-year ice is likely to melt by the end of summer, saying that despite the total ice extent appearing normal, the relative amount of multi-year ice going into this summer is very low when compared to climatological averages" (NSIDC News, June 3, 2008).
So why should we care? Well, besides scientific curiosity, scientists agree that arctic sea ice is an potent indicator of climate change. Like other studies on climate change, things have been progressing in the arctic much faster than anyone predicted. A quick search shows this trend:
Nov. 4th, 2004: "Global warming is causing the Arctic ice-cap to melt at such an unprecedented rate that by the summer of 2070 it may have no ice at all . . ."
Dec. 12th, 2006: "The recent retreat of Arctic sea ice is likely to accelerate so rapidly that the Arctic Ocean could become nearly devoid of ice during summertime as early as 2040 . . ."
Dec. 12th, 2007: "Arctic summers ice free by 2013."
Some reports suggest that the arctic could be ice free this summer. The good news is that since arctic ice floats on the water, the melting does not directly contribute to a rise in sea levels. The bad news is that the effects of the melting are not limited to simply the ice on the water. New science suggests that "[p]ermafrost as far as 900 miles inland melts at more than three-times the usual rate when the sea ice melts rapidly, as it did last summer . . ." The article goes on to state that:
"Melting permafrost – frozen soil – would release massive amounts of carbon. Arctic soils hold 30% of the carbon currently stored in the world's soils. The result of melting: carbon dioxide and methane would enter the atmosphere at a rate to rival thousands of factories and power plants running at full steam. Global warming would increase, causing additional melting, which would result in additional emissions, additional warming, additional melting .... You get the point."I feel that within the next few years we will experience some sort of natural event that brings home the realities of climate change to people on a visceral, rather than purely intellectual, level. An ice-free arctic would be a powerful symbol and could perhaps be the wake-up call we need to actually treat climate change as the existential threat it is.
I'll be following this topic over the next several months, but if you are interested check out the NSIDC's RSS feed.
2 comments:
This is an alarming trend indeed. It kind of makes you wonder what other aspects of climate change are progressing faster than current models suggest. This will be a fascinating (and scary) topic to cover as we race into the summer. I never thought I'd say it, but here's to a cold and dreary summer to keep the arctic sea ice safe for another year.
These days I can't help but walk down the street and imagine what it'd be like to see two lanes adrift with shining bicycles. The ambient backdrop of my hometown severely attenuated resulting from the extinct cacophony of highways & thoroughfares. Fuel-consuming vehicles only legitimized for the transport of perishable goods. I can't think of anything healthier. I mean, yeah, climate change & all, but our bodies and psyches as well. It's not like our fast-paced lifestyle is worth a damn for anyone but the wealthy 1%.
Point? That kind of drastic change isn't something that will happen as a solution, it will happen as a result. Frankly humans are an organic embarrassment. I mean, really, how can we be so arrogant about our short-sightedness? We didn't know that we'd max our our resources? We're still walking around with such self-important attitudes when we're about to get a cold hand to the face of just how mortal and dependent we are. It's hard for me to have empathy in this situation. Not only do I think we deserve it, but I don't lament the result. Yes, I feel sad for the other sentient beings on this planet that suffer as a result, but we're never going to get that time back. All the wishing, Greenpeace funding, Al Gore movie watching, and carbon footprint tracking in the world isn't going to bring back the planet we knew. Our universe is one of change, and I can't bring myself to lament when there's a need to focus on rolling with that change.
That, however, does not excuse me or anyone else from a duty to improve the overall health of the planet. Or at least not make things worse.
I don't know how it's affecting the rest of the world, if at all, but us Pacific-dwellers are experiencing the La Nina effect right now. We've had a few sprinkles of days in the 80's (a few of them happening in January), but most of the time it's been very cool, with really cold, near freezing nights. I've heard forecasts that the summer won't get really warm until late. Cheers, Zach, maybe we'll get that mellower summer. At least we should hope, for your sake. Your northwest ass is about to experience hurricane season for the first time, right?
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